One of the Scariest Hackers I've Ever Met: Pablos Holman

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  • Podcast: The Tim Ferriss Show
  • Host: Tim Ferriss
  • Guest: Pablos Holman: hacker, inventor, investor, author of Deep Future
  • Duration: ~2 hours 18 minutes
  • Listen: Apple Podcasts | YouTube

Pablos Holman has been a hacker, worked at Blue Origin with Jeff Bezos, spent years at Intellectual Ventures inventing breakthrough technologies, and now invests in deep tech. His worldview is unconventional and worth understanding.

The Hacker Mindset

Hackers ask “What can I make this do?” instead of “What does this do?” That is the fundamental difference. They approach everything from off-label use. You cannot invent a new technology by reading the directions.

In 2008, Holman hacked AT&T voicemail, Schlage locks, and RFID credit cards live on stage. But hacking is not about computers. It is a methodology for innovation that applies to any field.

The 100-Year / 10-Year Framework

Holman learned this from Jeff Bezos. Evaluate technologies by asking whether they will obviously exist in 100 years. If yes, ask whether they can be built in 10 years. This prevents wasting time on things that do not matter while keeping the horizon long enough for truly transformative work.

Deep Tech Investing

Holman’s filter: seek 10x improvements over existing solutions. Accept high technical risk but demand minimal market risk; once the technology works, massive existing markets are waiting. This is the opposite of typical VC, which optimizes for market risk in software and avoids technical risk entirely.

Energy Is the Foundation

Holman believes energy is the critical path problem. Solve energy first, and countless other challenges become solvable. His work includes nuclear reactors that can be buried in boreholes: passively safe, no meltdown risk, no proliferation concern. He also worked on autonomous sailing cargo ships that eliminate fuel consumption in shipping.

The US Is Falling Behind

Holman is concerned that the US has lost its capacity to build physical things. Software consumes 98% of attention but represents only 2% of global GDP. China is executing on manufacturing and nuclear energy while the US optimizes for regulatory safety and incremental app improvements.

Silicon Valley Optimized for the Wrong Thing

Silicon Valley built a machinery for funding incremental software improvements but neglected breakthrough technologies. The opportunities for impact and financial return are far larger in energy, shipping, manufacturing, and other physical industries than in the saturated software market.

Inventors as a Creative Class

Holman argues inventors deserve the same cultural recognition as artists or musicians. They receive virtually none. This limits the flow of talent into fields that produce transformative technologies.

Extreme Risk Tolerance

“I have a kind of extreme risk tolerance. My whole career, I have only worked on things I thought were cool or interesting. I have gone broke a bunch of times.” Holman argues most people over-optimize for safety. The biggest opportunities require accepting that you might fail.

Crepi il lupo! 🐺